Why Manual Gearboxes Are Disappearing and What’s Driving Their Decline

BMW M boss Frank van Meel said earlier this year that a manual gearbox “makes no sense from an engineering point of view.” He reasoned that a manual transmission limited the engine’s torque, whereas an automatic transmission could handle the full power produced by the company’s signature inline-six engine. Of course, engineers can develop larger transmissions capable of unleashing the engine’s full potential, but cost is a major factor.

Demand for manual cars isn’t what it used to be, although some argue that sales would be higher if more carmakers offered three pedals. Spending money on a new manual, knowing from the start that it would be difficult in terms of sales, is hard to justify. However, that doesn’t mean BMW has completely given up on letting the driver set his own gears.

According to the Vice President, Customer, Brand and Sales of the M division, BMW is not ready to stop the manual issue. Sylvia Neubauer tells Mobilwoche that engineers are looking for a solution to keep the clutch pedal on even as the 3.0-liter engine continues to add power. Although he was reluctant to go into detail, the M executive “promised a solution,” according to the German report.

In this case, BMW might consider artificially limiting the engine’s output to maintain the manual’s long-term durability. This has been the case for some time, as an M2 with an automatic transmission has 50 Nm (37 lb-ft) more torque than the same car equipped with a manual transmission.

With or without a manual in its portfolio, BMW isn’t abandoning high-performance combustion engine cars. Even as the electric M model approaches, ICE still has a future in Munich. The company has confirmed the next-generation M3 with a six-cylinder engine, which is expected to launch in 2028. The timeline suggests that the sports sedan will remain on sale until the 2030s, by which time there will likely be a wide range of M-badged electric vehicles.

Even if the next M3 doesn’t get a manual, there’s still time to buy the current generation. It will most likely be withdrawn at the end of this year or early 2027, considering that the 3 Series will change generations. Meanwhile, BMW removed one model from its list of manual offerings: the Z4 M40i. The roadster went out of production this month, leaving only the M2, M3, and M4 with stick shift.

The M2 and M4 coupes could remain in production until near the end of the decade, giving enthusiasts around three more years to purchase a six-speed BMW M car. Looking ahead, the future doesn’t look promising for manuals, and this isn’t just because of low usage rates and limited power. Frank van Meel also points out higher fuel consumption, which may not be an issue for some high-performance car buyers.

However, stricter emissions regulations hastened the manual’s demise. If automakers can achieve lower CO₂ levels with automatic transmissions, then manuals become vulnerable. It’s a numbers game in Europe, where automakers are racing to meet increasingly stringent regulations and avoid hefty fines for exceeding vehicle emissions targets.

Suppliers are also less interested in producing manual gearboxes in small quantities, as economies of scale are more difficult to achieve with low-volume products. Additionally, increasingly complex driver assistance systems are designed to work with automated systems, adding another nail to manual systems.

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Source: BMW

Motorcycle Pickup1: It’s easy to get frustrated with BMW and other automakers for phasing out manuals, but the odds are stacked against the six-speed for all the reasons above. It is unrealistic to expect any company to sell its products at a loss, especially when the industry is under financial pressure.

Developing electric vehicles is critical and requires huge investment, making niche products such as manual performance cars a low priority. That’s how hard work is in the auto industry these days, so if you want a manual, it might be wise to get one while you still can.